South African Data Analysts: Lockdown Will Lead to 29 Times More Deaths Than Coronavirus


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A data analyst consortium in South Africa asserts that the economic consequences of the country’s lockdown will lead to 29 times more people dying than the coronavirus itself.

“The model, which will be made public today for debate, was developed by a consortium calling itself Panda (Pandemic ~ Data Analysis), which includes four actuaries, an economist and a doctor, while the work was checked by lawyers and mathematicians,” reports the Financial Mail. “The process was led by two fellows at the Actuarial Society of SA, Peter Castleden and Nick Hudson.”

According to the research, the 29 times figure is a “conservative estimate” of how many lives will be lost due to the impact of poverty caused by economic hardship over the long term.

The Mail describes how the consortium reached their conclusion.

“In SA, they estimate that 5.4 years of life have been lost per Covid-19 death. They then multiply this by the range of deaths which they predict – 20,000 – as well as the actuarial society’s prediction of 88,000 fatalities. They factor in that the lockdown will have reduced some deaths, but not all. In the end, their model translated into a minimum of 26,800 “years of lives lost” due to Covid-19, and a maximum of 473,500 years. (This, critically, shouldn’t be confused with the actual number of fatalities expected from Covid-19.)”

“The actuaries then used the figures predicted by the National Treasury to model the impact on poverty. On Friday, the Treasury estimated that between 3-million and 7-million jobs will be lost due to the measures taken to combat the virus. The actuaries then work out that, conservatively, 10% of South Africans will become poorer, and as a result, will lose a few months of their lives.”

The model shows that the number of years lost due to the economic collapse caused by the lockdown will be between 14 million and 24 million, which means the 29 times figure is on the low end and could be even higher.

The model also showed that based on European data, “90% of Covid-19 deaths were in people 70 or older with one or more comorbidity, while the relative risk to the young and healthy is negligible.”

The researchers have sent a letter to President Cyril Ramaphosa demanding an end to the lockdown and calling it a “humanitarian disaster” that will “dwarf Covid-19.”

As we previously highlighted, in the UK, Professor Richard Sullivan warns that there will be more excess cancer deaths than total coronavirus deaths due to cancer victims not getting screenings and treatment due to the focus on COVID-19.

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Original source: https://summit.news/2020/05/05/south-african-data-analysts-lockdown-will-lead-to-29-times-more-deaths-than-coronavirus/


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